This is advisory only: verify current eligibility, availability, waiver timing and roster opening, then obtain owner approval before any move. Do not interpret the IL log as independently verified current Yahoo state; temporary add-without-drop is not evaluated as a permanent 14-player roster.

Reproduction at commit 363facdb323ad3387cbfba3756c605cb50d9b120; roster captured 2026-10-21T02:40:28.335Z, synced 2026-10-21T02:42:08Z, roster SHA256 3da374fdb8c04a74aa7a7a1875c05dc814be791f074019eb5fa21fa6dc88ca0b.
The pre-effective Bailey window is retained; only the player window changes from Oct23 onward. Apply this script-addition diff, rebuild cached local projection sets, and run from repo root:
fantasy data alt-projections --blend market --out var/projections_alt/market.csv
fantasy data alt-projections --blend espn-only --blend-gp espn=1 --out var/projections_alt/espn-only-gp.csv
python scripts/advisor_champagnie_check.py --sims 2000 --seeds 8 --seed-start 101 --effective-date 2026-10-23 --out var/advisor-champagnie.json

Projection hashes: {"blend": "6acf9cce425b45e1f0021f267b9c4766e2c9cbb267ad3c883b8c835ea4a896bc", "market": "bb83f45f307fe6e4df9c7d7be0c7d4096def49946815c089669d8d68b27f927e", "stress": "8436dc57540b1a32cd70d823a8bdc7c809ec0064a35e2bcbca1a0dcb0dddda40"}

--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/advisor_champagnie_check.py
@@ -0,0 +1,58 @@
+"""Offline paired season reproduction at commit 363facd; no live-state claims.
+
+Run from repository root after rebuilding cached alternative projections:
+  fantasy data alt-projections --blend market --out var/projections_alt/market.csv
+  fantasy data alt-projections --blend espn-only --blend-gp espn=1 --out var/projections_alt/espn-only-gp.csv
+  python scripts/advisor_champagnie_check.py --sims 2000 --seeds 8 --seed-start 101 --effective-date 2026-10-23 --out var/advisor-champagnie.json
+
+The effective date reproduces research section 0.2, not verified Yahoo timing.
+"""
+import argparse, hashlib, json, time
+from datetime import date
+from pathlib import Path
+import numpy as np
+from fantasy.inseason.possim import make_sim
+from fantasy.league.settings import load_settings
+from fantasy.model.lines import load_projections
+from fantasy.sim.context import build_context
+from fantasy.sim.league import from_json
+
+ap=argparse.ArgumentParser()
+ap.add_argument('--sims',type=int,default=2000)
+ap.add_argument('--seeds',type=int,default=8)
+ap.add_argument('--seed-start',type=int,default=101)
+ap.add_argument('--effective-date',type=date.fromisoformat,default=date(2026,10,23))
+ap.add_argument('--out',type=Path,required=True)
+a=ap.parse_args()
+lf=Path('data/manual/league_rosters_2026-27.json'); raw=json.loads(lf.read_text())
+lg=from_json(lf); me=lg.my_team
+st=load_settings().model_copy(update={'num_teams':len(lg.rosters)})
+add,drop='julian-champagnie','ace-bailey'
+assert drop in lg.rosters[me] and not any(add in ps for ps in lg.rosters.values())
+alt=lg.copy();alt.rosters[me]=[*alt.rosters[me],add]
+eff=a.effective_date; windows={drop:(None,eff),add:(eff,None)}
+sets={'blend':Path('data/processed/projections_2026_27.csv'),'market':Path('var/projections_alt/market.csv'),'stress':Path('var/projections_alt/espn-only-gp.csv')}
+res={'commit':'363facdb323ad3387cbfba3756c605cb50d9b120','roster_source':raw['source'],'synced_at':raw['synced_at'],'roster_sha256':hashlib.sha256(lf.read_bytes()).hexdigest(),'effective':eff.isoformat(),'sims_per_seed':a.sims,'seeds':list(range(a.seed_start,a.seed_start+a.seeds)),'sets':{},'assumptions':['Fixed captured rosters; no live Yahoo verification.','Successful claim; incoming starts Oct23 (waiver timing prior); outgoing retained before effective day.','Position-aware season simulator with default IL replacement and season availability, not current-day injury-tag conditioning.','No transaction/waiver-priority cost or future team add/drop reactions modelled.','SE measures Monte Carlo noise only; not model/projection uncertainty.']}
+start=time.monotonic()
+for name,path in sets.items():
+ ctx=build_context(load_projections(path),st,lg.team_ids,schedule_file=Path('data/manual/league_schedule.json'))
+ accum={m:[] for m in ['p_playoffs','p_title','exp_cat_wins']};seed_rows=[]
+ for seed in res['seeds']:
+  sim=make_sim(ctx,a.sims,seed)
+  b=sim.run(lg);c=sim.run(alt,windows)
+  i,k=b.tindex(me),c.tindex(me)
+  arrays={'p_playoffs':(b.playoff[:,i].astype(float),c.playoff[:,k].astype(float)), 'p_title':((b.champion==i).astype(float),(c.champion==k).astype(float)), 'exp_cat_wins':(b.cat_wins[:,i],c.cat_wins[:,k])}
+  sr={'seed':seed}
+  for m,(x,y) in arrays.items():
+   d=y-x;accum[m].append((x,y,d));sr[m]={'before':float(x.mean()),'after':float(y.mean()),'delta':float(d.mean()),'paired_se':float(d.std(ddof=1)/np.sqrt(len(d)))}
+  seed_rows.append(sr)
+  print(json.dumps({'set':name,'seed':seed,'elapsed_s':round(time.monotonic()-start,2)}),flush=True)
+ summary={}
+ for m,rows in accum.items():
+  x=np.concatenate([r[0] for r in rows]);y=np.concatenate([r[1] for r in rows]);d=np.concatenate([r[2] for r in rows])
+  means=np.array([r[2].mean() for r in rows]);seed_ses=np.array([r[2].std(ddof=1)/np.sqrt(len(r[2])) for r in rows])
+  se_paired=float(np.sqrt(np.mean(seed_ses**2))/np.sqrt(a.seeds));se_seed=float(means.std(ddof=1)/np.sqrt(a.seeds)) if a.seeds>1 else se_paired
+  summary[m]={'before':float(x.mean()),'after':float(y.mean()),'delta':float(d.mean()),'paired_pooled_se':float(d.std(ddof=1)/np.sqrt(len(d))),'paired_within_seed_se':se_paired,'between_seed_se':se_seed,'reported_se':max(se_paired,se_seed),'n_paired':len(d)}
+ res['sets'][name]={'projection_sha256':hashlib.sha256(path.read_bytes()).hexdigest(),'summary':summary,'by_seed':seed_rows,'warnings':ctx.warnings}
+ res['elapsed_s']=round(time.monotonic()-start,2);a.out.write_text(json.dumps(res,indent=2))
+ print(json.dumps({'set_complete':name,'summary':summary}),flush=True)